He died on that hill

The editor declined to publish this article and instead printed a letter with a complaint about wolf impacts on the deer herd in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Privileging these opinions, conspiracy theories (a source told me the governor is ordering staff at the Department of Natural Resources to suppress and ignore data), and misinformation campaigns has real consequences and was a huge red flag that induced me to begin seeking employment elsewhere.

Update: the Jan. 10 edition includes an 850 word letter blaming wolves for the large reduction in deer harvest.

U.P. deer harvest down, wolf sightings up

The Wyoming legislature has taken the gray wolf off protected status and created a hunting season for them a couple different times in the past decade.

The final, official numbers are in for Michigan’s 2023 deer harvest and in the Upper Peninsula, where the figures dropped 30% compared with last year, sportsmen remain concerned about wolves. Although wildlife experts with the Michigan Department of Natural Resources have maintained that Upper Peninsula wolves are not causing significant impacts on deer populations, many U.P. sportsmen are sharing trail camera footage and differing opinions.

Data source: Michigan DNR

“The wolves are decimating the deer herd in the Upper Peninsula,” said Gary Gorniak, president of the Straits Area Sportsmen’s Club (SASC). “We’ve been harping on the DNR for years now that the wolf count is incorrect and that the wolves are doing a lot more damage to the deer herd than the biologists are telling us.”

In a January 31, 2023, St. Ignace News article, Erich T. Doerr summarized the results of SASC’s annual survey, which collected 387 responses. Of respondees who reported seeing fewer deer and were asked to speculate as to why, the most popular answer was predation.

Unconvinced by a 2022 MDNR report showing stable numbers for the U.P. gray wolf population over the last decade (between 600 and 700), many have joined a private Facebook group, “U.P. Wolves Only,” to share trail camera images. From these, SASC has been attempting to conduct an independent count.

In January 2023, Gorniak estimated the U.P. wolf population to be double what MDNR reports. Now he estimates the number at around 2,000.

“If you look at wolf biology, that’s just not possible,” said Brian Roell, a large carnivore specialist with MDNR.

A study by Michigan Technological University concluded that approximately 65% of the U.P. is occupied by wolves. Adding their territorial behavior and average pack size to the equation, Roell said that Gorniak’s estimation is not supported by scientific data.

He acknowledged that MDNR provides minimum estimates, from winter counts, but noted also that pup mortality rates range between 50 and 60 percent in the spring. The most recent population study was conducted in 2022.

“We count wolves when they’re at their rock-bottom, lowest number,” he said. “We have to count them (then) because that’s when we have the snow.”

He also acknowledged that wolf-fawn kill rates increased by over 5% in the latest study, but noted that coyotes, whose kill rates rose 1.5%, outnumber wolves in the U.P. ten to one.

In a 2021 MDNR study called “Factors Limiting Deer Abundance in the Upper Peninsula” co-authored by Roell, coyotes ranked first among fawn killers, followed by black bears and bobcats. Wolves ranked last.

“Other non-predatory types of mortality, including malnutrition, disease, abandonment, vehicle-collisions, etc. have greater impact than predation from any specific predator in the Upper Peninsula,” the study concludes.

Repeated harsh winters are having the biggest impact on deer populations (as well as indicators like buck harvests), according to Roell. Biologists define a harsh winter for a deer as one in which 12 inches of snow cover persists at least 90 days. Eight of the past eleven U.P. winters have qualified as harsh. Harsh winters lead to low birth weight among fawns. Low birth weights decrease chances of survival.